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　　Europeans have long aspired to end American dominance as the world’s economic leader. The single market and the euro are widely seen as essential steps in this direction. But is Europe ready to lead? Do Europeans understand what it would take?

　　Despite a budding recovery, the United States is hardly the model of economic health that it once was. On several issues—from steel tariffs to the resurgent deficit to shady corporate practices—America has demonstrated a growing failure of leadership. Over the past two decades the United States has shown what it takes to be an economic superpower—a strong currency, openness to imports, concessions in trade negotiations and articulating an economic philosophy for the rest of the world. Now that it’s apparently fading on so many counts, the question becomes: is Europe willing and prepared to do what the United States once did, in order to supplant it?

　　First the exchange-rate issue. The euro will probably continue strengthening against the dollar, if only because of America’s huge and growing $400 billion-a-year current-account deficit. This means that, every year, the United States borrows about 4 percent of its GDP on world markets. If international investors lose confidence in the U.S. economy, fewer people will want to hold dollar assets. The dollar will fall—and the euro will appreciate.

　　This may be a normal market cycle, but there will be consequences. Among others, European companies will see their U.S. profits erode. What happens if the dollar falls farther and faster than anticipated? Are European industrial companies ready to compete with a euro worth $1.10, $1.15 or $1.25? The flip side of the much-desired strong euro would almost certainly be a surge in imports from the United States and the rest of the world. Exports might fall, resulting in job losses—perhaps even a trade deficit for the European Union.

　　Europeans are rightfully angry at new U.S. steel tariffs. But given the sheer

正确答案及解析

正确答案

解析

欧洲人长久以来就渴望结束美国作为世界经济头领的主宰地位。单一市场和欧元的确立被广泛视为朝此方向采取的必要步骤。但欧洲做好了领头的准备吗？欧洲人知道怎样才能达到这一步吗？

　　美国虽然出现了复苏的迹象，但它已不是它以前所代表的健康经济的典型了。在几个问题上——从钢材进口关税，到再次出现的赤字，到大公司不正当的运作——美国表现得越来越缺乏领导资格了。在过去的20年间，美国显示了作为一个经济超级大国需要具备什么条件——坚挺的货币，对进口商品开放市场，在贸易谈判中肯于让步，向世界各地阐明经济哲学。既然美国明显地在这么多方面渐渐失去光彩，问题是：欧洲是否愿意、是否做好准备去做美国曾经做过的事，以便取代美国呢？

　　首先是汇率问题。欧元可能对美元继续坚挺，即使仅仅是因为美国每年有4000亿美元的往来账户赤字。这就是说，美国每年有4%的国内生产总值是从国际市场上借来的。如果国际投资者对美国经济失去信心，想持有美元资产的人数就会减少。美元会贬值——而欧元则会增值。

　　这也许是正常的市场周期，但是这会产生影响。其中之一，欧洲公司会看到他们在美国的利润削减。如果美元进一步下跌，而且跌得比预料的还快，那会怎么样呢？如果l欧元价值1.10美元，1.15美元，或l.25美元，欧洲的工业公司还准备竞争吗？虽然许多人都希望欧元坚挺，但坚挺的结果，几乎肯定会引起来自美国和世界各地进口的激增。出口可能下跌，造成就业岗位减少——也许甚至会给欧盟带来贸易赤字。欧洲人对美国新实施的钢材进口关税感到愤怒是有道理的。但是，鉴于美国贸易赤字数额巨大，华盛顿的政策实际上还是相当温和的。问题是：如果欧洲处于相似的情况，其选民和政治家能同样敏感地意识到怎样做对世界经济最为有利吗？如果是欧洲，而不是美国出现持续的贸易赤字，欧洲的政治家们能够面对要求采取保护主义政策而形成的令人难以置信的压力吗？恐怕不可能吧。

　　美国从其领导角色上退下来，这给欧盟提供了一个机会。麻烦的是，欧盟的政治体制还需要进一步完善，以使其成员国能超越眼前狭隘的自身利益，来解决贸易争端。

　　欧洲获取经济领导权的机遇可能比预料的来得快。但是，众多的欧洲人还不知道美国享有领导权的主要秘诀——其中包含艰苦奋斗和艰难抉择。在这行将决定他们未来的选举和决策的时节里，这正是欧洲人所面临的。让我们期待欧洲人认识到这样的牺牲不仅对他们自己有好处，而且对全世界都有好处。